Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 1.316027 1.379667 1.445366 1.518405 1.597509 1.680786 1.775337
2025-10-26 1.217460 1.308016 1.405282 1.518093 1.646057 1.787576 1.957144
2025-11-02 1.150923 1.256752 1.373481 1.512867 1.676237 1.863518 2.097229
2025-11-09 1.090845 1.205769 1.335111 1.493075 1.683067 1.907275 2.196663
2025-11-16 1.040948 1.162168 1.300883 1.473519 1.685776 1.942644 2.284257
2025-11-23 1.007923 1.135699 1.284185 1.472285 1.708455 2.001322 2.402529
2025-11-30 0.984209 1.118525 1.276879 1.480880 1.742234 2.074165 2.542551
2025-12-07 0.950805 1.087838 1.251242 1.464582 1.742379 2.102150 2.622506
2025-12-14 0.916116 1.054030 1.220054 1.439277 1.728719 2.109950 2.673420
2025-12-21 0.889567 1.029150 1.198777 1.425296 1.728585 2.134986 2.749295
2025-12-28 0.876910 1.020941 1.197879 1.437270 1.763088 2.208685 2.900740
2026-01-04 0.859384 1.005854 1.187437 1.435856 1.778746 2.256092 3.015439
2026-01-11 0.846818 0.997077 1.185286 1.446048 1.811847 2.331736 3.182630
2026-01-18 0.829702 0.981901 1.174229 1.443620 1.826889 2.381653 3.313162
2026-01-25 0.812799 0.966382 1.162037 1.438869 1.837943 2.425648 3.437048
2026-02-01 0.791626 0.944639 1.140809 1.420590 1.828160 2.436771 3.505395
2026-02-08 0.771698 0.923971 1.120348 1.402519 1.817644 2.445766 3.570178
2026-02-15 0.759195 0.912735 1.112176 1.401379 1.832058 2.494522 3.709784
2026-02-22 0.750689 0.906523 1.110531 1.409323 1.860293 2.566809 3.899384
2026-03-01 0.734373 0.889419 1.093447 1.394257 1.852376 2.579059 3.976110
2026-03-08 0.715841 0.868918 1.071155 1.370852 1.830462 2.566606 4.003330
2026-03-15 0.701729 0.854087 1.056337 1.357913 1.824337 2.580311 4.083545
2026-03-22 0.696427 0.851063 1.057814 1.368995 1.856512 2.661206 4.308647